Opinion: Why Odm Cannot Afford to Lose in the Kariobangi North Ward By-election

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party which has for the last 20 years boasted as the largest political party in Kenya is reeling from the shock of the sad demise of the former party leader Raila Odinga. ODM politics for two decades have pivoted around Odinga and the Kariobangi North ward by-elections will be the first test of solidity in the party after Odinga’s demise. Billed as the greatest acid test for ODM strength post Raila Odinga. It will be a test how it performs in Kariobangi by election without the Raila influence in the largely cosmopolitan area. Why can ODM not afford to lose in Kariobangi? First, the ward is in Nairobi and has traditionally been hotly contested. For a long time, Kariobangi North ward had been an ODM stronghold until the 2013 election when the most popular candidate was not given the nomination certificate. ODM is expected to win seats in their traditional strongholds in Ugenya, Kasipul and Magarini both in Luo Nyanza and coast region. Even in other areas where ODM has in the past enjoyed support like the western region, ODM dropped out of the Malava race in support of the UDA candidate. Some supporters of ODM reportedly feel shortchanged in Malava and some feel they could end up supporting the DAP-Kenya candidate Seth Panyako. UDA and ODM took zoning as the preferred way of choosing their candidates in the by elections while many ODM supporters in Malava felt they would have produced a stronger candidate than UDA. In the 2022 elections, Panyako who is running on a DAP-K ticket was the UDA candidate and came in second from the late Malulu Injendi of ANC. With ANC now folded up to join UDA, ODM would have put up a formidable challenge for the seat. On the other hand, UDA refused to support the ODM candidate in Kariobangi North. With Kariobangi North ward being a cosmopolitan area, ODM is trying to reclaim the seat and with the challenge from DCP and UDA, the ODM party will be keen to win the seat. In the days after the 2013 ODM setback, some powerful politicians are said to have aided the creation of slums in Kariobangi North. Reportedly, the slums were meant to increase an influx of Kikuyu voters in the area. The tribal arithmetic in Kariobangi North has been in play in the last elections in 2017 and 2022. However, the subsequent demolitions of slums in the area relatively reduced the Kikuyu votes in the area making the Luo and Kikuyu voters in the area almost equal and the forthcoming by elections will be a battle between ODM and DCP. The political dynamics in the area will be largely be determined by the ODM and DCP parties which enjoy a large following noting that the ODM Nomination fiasco in 2022 was determined by the Azimio zoning led to an independent candidate, backed by disgruntled ODM supporters win the elections in the last elections. By UDA choosing to front a candidate against ODM, and DCP gaining a massive popularity from the followers of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the candidate who will manage to annex a chunk the votes from smaller communities in the area who traditionally vote for ODM and the UDA following will carry the day and ODM will be capitalizing on those dynamics.