October Poll: Stazo Maintains Five-Month Lead as Embakasi East Parliamentary Race Takes Shape

NAIROBI, Kenya —Hon Stazo Omung'ala has maintained his lead in the race for the Embakasi East parliamentary seat, according to the latest opinion poll conducted between October 13 and 16, extending a run of consistent polling performances over the past five months.

The latest survey, which sampled more than 3,000 voters in Embakasi East, puts Stazo’s voting intention at 45.6 per cent, positioning him as the leading contender in an increasingly watched constituency contest.

The October findings reinforce a trend observed in successive polls over the past five months, suggesting that Stazo has maintained a substantial base of support as the political landscape continues to evolve.

His latest rating places him within reach of the 50 per cent mark, although the result remains a measure of respondents’ stated preferences rather than a guarantee of victory at the ballot.

The poll also identifies the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as the most popular political party in Embakasi East. However, Stazo’s reported appeal among younger voters who do not necessarily support ODM suggests that his support may extend beyond the party’s traditional base.

This combination of sustained polling performance, established grassroots networks and potential cross-party appeal could prove significant as the race for the parliamentary seat gathers momentum.

Five Months of Consistent Polling Performance

One of the most notable findings is the consistency of Stazo’s lead over the past five months. He appears to have maintained his position across successive surveys, according to the Intouch poll findings.

Sustained leadership in opinion polling can indicate an established level of voter support, particularly when results remain consistent across different survey periods. For Stazo, the latest 45.6 per cent voting intention provides another indication of his standing in the constituency.

The key question now is whether he can build on that position and attract enough additional support to move beyond his current level.

While the five-month trend strengthens the picture of his political standing, the interpretation ultimately depends on the actual results of each survey, the consistency of their methodology and the extent to which the samples reflect Embakasi East’s electorate.

Beyond the ODM Ticket

Stazo serves as the ODM Nairobi Youth League chairman, a position that places him within the party’s leadership structure and gives him a platform to engage with younger voters.

He was also a close ally of the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a relationship that forms part of his political background and association with the ODM movement.

Although ODM remains the most popular party in the constituency, the poll findings suggest that Stazo’s support may not be limited to voters who identify with the party.

His reported appeal among young voters outside ODM’s traditional support base could become an important factor in the contest. In a constituency where party loyalty remains relevant, attracting voters on the strength of an individual candidate’s profile, record and grassroots connections can create opportunities to build a broader electoral coalition.

For Stazo, the challenge will be to convert this reported appeal into sustained support across the constituency, particularly as competing aspirants seek to strengthen their own political bases.

Upper Savannah: The Foundation of His Parliamentary Bid

Stazo’s second term as the Member of the County Assembly for Upper Savannah Ward gives him an established political presence within Embakasi East.

According to the October poll findings, Upper Savannah is the area where he enjoys his strongest support for the parliamentary seat. The ward therefore appears to provide an important foundation for his ambitions, drawing on his experience as an elected representative and his existing grassroots networks.

A strong home base can offer a candidate a valuable starting point in a constituency-wide contest. It provides an established network through which to engage residents, mobilise supporters and introduce a broader political agenda.

However, the parliamentary race will require Stazo to extend his appeal beyond Upper Savannah and demonstrate that his support is spread across the wider constituency.

His experience as an MCA is likely to be part of that assessment, with voters considering his accessibility and ability to address local concerns as they weigh the candidates seeking to represent them in the National Assembly.

The Youth Vote Could Be a Key Factor

Stazo’s reported support among younger voters presents another potentially important dimension of his political standing.

Young people remain central to Kenya’s political conversations, particularly on employment, the cost of living, accountability and meaningful representation. Candidates who can connect their political messages to these concerns may find opportunities to attract voters beyond established party structures.

His position as ODM Nairobi Youth League chairman offers a platform for youth engagement, while his experience in county-level elective politics provides a record against which voters can assess his leadership.

The reported support among young voters who do not necessarily identify with ODM is particularly noteworthy because it suggests the possibility of a candidate building support across different political preferences.

Whether that support translates into votes will depend on the issues raised during the campaign, the credibility of his agenda and his ability to mobilise supporters when it matters most.

A Strong Position, but the Race Is Not Decided

At 45.6 per cent voting intention, Stazo enters the next phase of the emerging contest with a significant reported level of support. His five-month lead, Upper Savannah base and position within ODM provide several potential advantages.

Nevertheless, opinion polls capture preferences at a particular point in time. The final outcome will depend on the strength of competing candidates, the party nomination process, campaign organisation, political alliances and voter turnout.

ODM’s continued popularity could also play an important role in shaping the race, particularly as aspirants position themselves within the party’s political structures.

For now, the October survey places Stazo among the key figures to watch in Embakasi East. His reported 45.6 per cent voting intention, combined with the consistency of his polling position over the past four months, presents a picture of a candidate with an established base and room to expand his support.

The next test will be whether he can convert that sustained polling momentum into a constituency-wide electoral coalition strong enough to take him from the county assembly to the National Assembly.

Poll Methodology

The opinion poll was conducted between October 13 and 16, 2026, among more than 3,000 voters in Embakasi East constituency. It assessed respondents’ voting intentions for the parliamentary seat, political party popularity and patterns of support across the constituency.

According to the findings provided, Stazo recorded 45.6 per cent voting intention, while ODM emerged as the most popular political party in the constituency. The survey also identified Upper Savannah as Stazo’s strongest area of support and reported backing among younger voters who do not necessarily support ODM.

The October findings are reported to be consistent with polling trends observed over the preceding five months.

For full transparency, the polling organisation should disclose the exact sample size, sampling procedure, geographic distribution of respondents, interview method, weighting procedures, treatment of undecided voters and margin of sampling error, where applicable.

Source: Intouch Polls: Embakasi East opinion poll, October 13–17, 2026.