Nairobi Gubernatorial Race: Aladwa’s Grassroots Networks Challenge Babu’s Lead as Sakaja’s Incumbency Holds Him in a Tight October Survey
Latest Intouch Polls tracking puts Babu Owino at 27%, George Aladwa at 22%, Johnson Sakaja at 20% and James Gakuya at 16%, with Ronald Karauri and Bishop Margaret Wanjiru also featuring in the emerging contest.
NAIROBI — Nairobi’s 2027 gubernatorial race is taking shape as a competitive contest involving several prominent political figures, with Babu Owino leading the latest preference tracking by Intouch Polls, followed by former Nairobi mayor George Aladwa and incumbent Governor Johnson Sakaja.
The survey places Babu at 27%, Aladwa at 22%, Sakaja at 20% and Embakasi North MP James Gakuya at 16%. Ronald Karauri records 8%, while Bishop Margaret Wanjiru registers 4%, according to the pollster's figures. Other candidates account for the remaining 3%.
The survey, conducted between October 13 and 16, 2026, involved 8,500 respondents, with 500 drawn from each of Nairobi’s 17 constituencies. The survey was conducted through phone calls to selected registered voters across all 17 constituencies.
Although Babu leads the current tracking, the findings show that support is distributed among several aspirants, with established party networks, grassroots mobilisation, political experience and incumbency all likely to feature in the emerging contest.
Aladwa’s experience and grassroots networks in focus
For George Aladwa, the gubernatorial bid draws on a political career spanning ward-level representation, municipal leadership, Parliament and party organisation.
Aladwa served as the last mayor of Nairobi under the former City Council before the transition to county government. He later represented Makadara in Parliament and served as ODM Nairobi County chairman, giving him experience in both city administration and national politics.
His political journey, which began in grassroots elective politics, has helped establish his presence in Nairobi’s neighbourhood political networks. Years of engagement with local leaders, party structures and residents form an important part of his political profile.
The latest Intouch Polls figures place him at 22%, five percentage points behind Babu and two points ahead of Sakaja. His reported support in Makadara stands at more than 64% among respondents expressing a positive preference for his gubernatorial bid, while his approval rating in the constituency as an MP is reported at 58%.
The two figures measure different things and should be interpreted separately. Nevertheless, Makadara remains a significant reference point in assessing Aladwa’s political base.
His reported support also extends to other constituencies, particularly areas represented by ODM MPs and wards held by ODM MCAs. Whether these established networks will translate into broader countywide support will be an important question as the contest develops.
The ODM factor
Intouch Polls puts ODM’s overall support in Nairobi at 52%, making it the largest party support base in the survey.
Aladwa’s longstanding association with ODM and his experience as the party’s Nairobi County chairman place him within a political network with an established presence across the capital. Currently, Aladwa enjoys significant support among ODM supporters.
However, party support does not automatically translate into support for an individual gubernatorial candidate. The eventual distribution of ODM supporters among competing aspirants, alongside the ability of candidates to attract voters from outside their traditional political bases, could influence the shape of the race.
For Aladwa, the challenge is to demonstrate that his experience, party connections and grassroots relationships can attract support beyond his strongest constituencies.
Babu Owino holds the lead
Babu’s 27% places him at the top of the current preference tracking. The pollster’s account indicates that his support has declined compared with earlier measurements.
The survey also reportedly identifies support for Babu among voters associated with different political formations, including DCP and the Linda Mwananchi movement.
His current position puts him ahead of Aladwa and Sakaja, even though his support base has been dropping, but the figures alone do not establish whether the lead will continue to narrow as elections approach. Further tracking would be needed to establish the direction and consistency of voter movement.
Sakaja and Gakuya remain significant contenders
At 20%, Sakaja remains among the leading names in the contest, despite trailing Babu and Aladwa in this October survey.
As the incumbent governor, Sakaja’s administration and record on county services, urban management, infrastructure and revenue collection are likely to form part of the public debate. The current figures do not, on their own, explain the reasons behind his support level or establish a trend.
Gakuya, meanwhile, records 16%, placing him fourth in the reported preference tracking. As the MP for Embakasi North, he brings parliamentary experience and an established constituency-level political profile to the emerging field.
His position in the survey places him within reach of the three leading candidates in a contest where several aspirants are attracting measurable support.
Karauri and Bishop Wanjiru feature in the race
Ronald Karauri records 8%, while Bishop Margaret Wanjiru registers 4% in the figures supplied by Intouch Polls.
Their inclusion illustrates the breadth of the emerging field, with the race extending beyond the three candidates currently recording the highest preference figures.
The remaining 3% is attributed to other candidates. The poll’s full breakdown would be needed to determine which other aspirants are included in that category and whether respondents who did not select one of the named candidates were undecided or supported other options.
A competitive field ahead of 2027
The reported figures show a contest with several identifiable centres of support: Babu at 27%, Aladwa at 22%, Sakaja at 20%, Gakuya at 16%, Karauri at 8%, Wanjiru at 4% and other candidates at 3%.
For Aladwa, his former mayoral tenure, parliamentary experience and grassroots networks are central elements of his political profile. For Babu, the immediate reference point is his lead in the current tracking. Sakaja stays in the contest as the incumbent, while Gakuya, Karauri, Wanjiru and other aspirants add to the range of choices reflected in the poll.
The October figures offer a snapshot of preferences during the survey period rather than a prediction of the final election outcome. As the race progresses, changes in party alignments, campaign visibility, policy proposals and local political dynamics may affect the distribution of support.
About the survey: Intouch Polls says the survey was conducted from October 13 to 16, 2026, involving 8,500 respondents, with 500 respondents from each of Nairobi’s 17 constituencies. The full technical report, including sampling procedures, weighting, questionnaire wording, and margin of error, was not provided for this article.