Israel Heads to Polls as Netanyahu Fights for Political Survival
Israel is heading to the polls on Tuesday in a closely contested election that is being described as one of the most important in its history.
The vote is the first since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 and the subsequent genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza, as well as a wider conflict that has seen Israel carry out attacks on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar.
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, is seeking to extend his tenure after leading the country’s most right-wing governing coalition which brought together far-right ultranationalists and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.
Wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in Gaza and faced with a long-running corruption trial, he is fighting for his political survival against a self-styled Zionist opposition bloc that has fundamentally embraced a right-wing approach to Israel’s challenges. Questions over accountability for alleged security failures, disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service and efforts to exclude Arab-led parties dominated the campaign.
Polling published on Friday suggests incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu is in a near neck-and-neck race with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot to become prime minister.
But neither of their political blocs are projected to win the 61 seats needed to form a majority government - meaning weeks or months of political wrangling may lie ahead.
The campaign has been shaped by the issue of security - with the opposition bloc hammering Netanyahu for the unprecedented security failure that led to the 7 October Hamas-led attacks on Israel, in which nearly 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken back to Gaza as hostages.
They have pushed for an independent commission of inquiry into the attacks - something Netanyahu has long resisted, insisting it would be biased against him.
Despite the opposition's attack lines, Netanyahu has once again framed himself as "Mr Security" - pointing to what he says are strategic victories in Israel's wars across the Middle East and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump.
Israel's proportional representation system means governments have always been coalitions - and the race to power can, and has, produced unexpected alliances. But this election looks especially tight - and lines in the sand have already been drawn.
Eisenkot, who leads the newly formed Yashar Party, is the main figure in the so-called "change bloc", a collection of parties who have ideological differences but share the goal of ousting Netanyahu.
Other leaders in the bloc include former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman - both right-wingers who take hardline positions on security - and Yair Golan, a left-leaning former general.
For Netanyahu, a titan of Israeli politics who first served as prime minister in 1996, a return to power will hinge on another alliance with the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that make up his current governing coalition - the most right-wing in Israel's history.
There are two Arab party blocs in the running too, as about one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab - many of whom describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel. In theory, they could prove kingmakers. But all but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out working with them.
On Sunday, Israel's Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu had pushed for last-minute military action that could trigger a confrontation with Iran prior to the elections - but was opposed by his own military chief Eyal Zamir. The following day, CNN reported that he had also tried to persuade Trump to carry out new strikes on Iran, but that Trump had refused to give the green light. Netanyahu denied both reports.
He also made headlines in the final days of his campaign for posting an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv, warning that he is the only leader who can protect Israel "if the Iranians acquire nuclear weapons". Eisenkot called him "hysterical".
Another dominating issue has been conscription, with Netanyahu's government failing to enforce a Supreme Court ruling that ultra-Orthodox Jewish men in full-time religious study should be conscripted to the military - a highly divisive move as thousands of others have been conscripted to fight in recent wars.